Abstracts of the presentations given on Wednesday, 25 July 2007, in Session 17 of the UCOWR Conference.


Specifically, we explore (a) the reliability of the index at different levels of probability of exceedance of maximum seasonal rainfall; (b) the effect of sampling uncertainties and the strength of the proxy's association to local outcome, (c) the potential for clustering of payoffs; (d) the potential that the index could be predicted with some lead time prior to the flood season; and (e) evidence for climate change or non-stationarity in the flood exceedance probability from the long ENSO record.