FLOOD LOSS ESTIMATE MODEL: RECASTING FLOOD DISASTER ASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION FOR HAITI, THE CASE OF GONAIVES

Author

Guetchine Gaspard, Southern Illinois University CarbondaleFollow

Date of Award

8-1-2013

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Geography and Environmental Resources

First Advisor

Oyana, Tonny

Abstract

This study aims at developing a model to estimate flood damage cost caused in Gonaives, Haiti by Hurricane Jeanne in 2004. In order to reach this goal, the influence of income, inundation duration and inundation depth, slope, population density and distance to major roads on the loss costs was investigated. Surveyed data were analyzed using Excel and ArcGIS 10 software. The ordinary least square and the geographically weighted regression analyses were used to predict flood damage costs. Then, the estimates were delineated using voronoi geostatistical map tool. As a result, the factors account for the costs as high as 83%. The flood damage cost in a household varies between 24,315 through 37,693 Haitian Gourdes (approximately 607.875 through 942.325 U.S. Dollars). Severe damages were spotted in the urban area and in the rural section of Bassin whereas very low and low losses are essentially found in Labranle. The urban area was more severely affected by comparison with the rural area. Damages in the urban area are estimated at 41,206,869.57USD against 698,222,174.10 17,455,554.35USD in the rural area. In the urban part, damages were more severe in Raboteau-Jubilée and in Downtown but Bigot-Parc Vincent had the highest overall damage cost estimated at 9,729,368.95 USD. The lowest cost 7,602,040.42USD was recorded in Raboteau. Approximately, 39.38% of the rural area underwent very low to moderate damages. Bassin was the most severely struck by the 2004 floods, but Bayonnais turned out to have the highest loss cost: 4,988,487.66 USD. Bassin along with Labranle had the least damage cost, 2,956,131.11 and 2,268,321.41 USD respectively. Based on the findings, we recommended the implementation and diversification of income-generating activities, the maintenance and improvement of drains, sewers and gullies cleaning and the establishment of conservation practices upstream of the watersheds. In addition, the model should be applied and validated using actual official records as reference data. Finally, the use of a calculation-based approach is suggested to determine flood damage costs in order to reduce subjectivity during surveys.