Date of Award
Master of Arts
Criminology and Criminal Justice
The main purpose of the current study is to evaluate the deterrent effects of the two juvenile law revisions in Japan. The time series data of delinquency rates in Japan (1965-2014) are investigated through auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling. Results demonstrates that there are insignificant deterrent effects of the revisions on the whole juvenile delinquencies, repeat offenses, or murder cases, after controlling for serial dependency and other factors. In terms of practical implications, these results suggest that the public and politicians should acknowledge that harsher policies are less likely to deter juvenile delinquency. While the current macro-level analysis is informative in that it provides a big picture of delinquency in a society, further research efforts are needed to explain why the law revisions failed to deter juvenile delinquency.
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