Date of Award
Master of Science
The models for volatility, autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) are discussed. Stationarity condition and forecasting for simple ARCH(1) and GARCH(1,1) models are given. The model for discrete time series is proposed to be negative binomial integer-valued GARCH model, which is a generalization of the Poisson INGARCH model. The stationarity conditions and the autocorrelation function are given. For parameter estimation, three methodologies are presented with a focus on maximum likelihood approach. Simulation study on a sample size of 100 and 500 are carried out and the results are presented. An application of the model to a real time series with numerical example is given indicating that the proposed methodology performs better than the Poisson and double Poisson model-based methods.
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