TAYLOR RULE IN THE NAMIBIAN MONETARY POLICY SETTING

Author

Floris Fernanzo Fleermuys, Southern Illinois University CarbondaleFollow

Date of Award

5-1-2010

Degree Name

Master of Arts

Department

Economics

First Advisor

Gilbert, Scott

Abstract

The introduction of inflation-targeting frameworks around the world prompts the question whether Central Banks focus solely on inflation. The paper uses the Taylor rule to characterize the Namibian Monetary Policy and to see whether the Bank of Namibia considers the economy in setting the Bank rate. Based on this rule, the Bank rate follows the Taylor rule over the sample period but there are several deviations. My results point to the following: Firstly, the Bank increases the policy rate to counter rising inflation but keeps the rate constant when inflation declines. Secondly, the Bank tends to smooth their rate adjustments. Using the lags of right hand side variables, hints at the fact that past inflation is important for the Bank to adjust the policy rate. Thirdly, the Bank of Namibia seems to focus more on inflation compared to the output gap. This is confirmed by the weight allocation which seems to be larger for inflation. Finally, the inclusion of additional variables that are deemed important in setting the Bank rate, improves the overall fit. Therefore, the model could be utilized to indicate where the policy rate should be.