Degree Name
Master of Arts
Graduate Program
Economics
Advisor
Zsolt Becsi
Abstract
This paper investigates the relationship between the S&P 500 stock price movements compared to the currency exchange rate movement of the five largest trading partners of the United States. The top five countries that the United States trades with are Canada, China, Germany, Japan, and Mexico. The purpose of this research is to answer the following question: Can the movement of the S&P 500 be determined by the currency exchange rates of the top five countries the United States trade with the most? For this paper, we assume that exchange rates explain the trading patterns of countries. To further analyze our question, we looked at the movement of China, Canada, Germany, Japan, and Mexico stock market indices based on their closing prices as well. Our regression estimates that the main dependent variable, the S&P 500, is significantly correlated with exchange rate movements. Furthermore, Canada has the most significant affect on the S&P 500 through both the money market and the goods market. Other dependent variables, the stock indices of China, Canada, Germany, Japan, and Mexico, show significant correlation between trading patterns and the indices. However, our findings indicated that China’s index was not significantly correlated with any of the independent variables.