Date of Award


Degree Name

Master of Science


Civil Engineering

First Advisor

Kalra, Ajay


Groundwater depletion has been one of the major challenges in recent years. Analysis of groundwater levels can be beneficial for groundwater management. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s twin satellite, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), serves in monitoring terrestrial water storage. Increasing freshwater demand amidst recent drought (2000–2014) posed a significant groundwater level decline within the Colorado River Basin (CRB). Besides, the application of GRACE has been constrained in a local scale due to lower spatial resolution. In the current study, a non-parametric technique was utilized to analyze historical groundwater variability. Additionally, a stochastic Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was developed and tested to forecast the GRACE-derived groundwater anomalies within the CRB. The ARIMA model was trained with the GRACE data from January 2003 to December of 2013 and validated with GRACE data from January 2014 to December of 2016. Groundwater anomaly from January 2017 to December of 2019 was forecasted with the tested model. Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation plots were drawn to identify and construct the seasonal ARIMA models. ARIMA order for each grid was evaluated based on Akaike’s and Bayesian information criterion.




This thesis is only available for download to the SIUC community. Current SIUC affiliates may also access this paper off campus by searching Dissertations & Theses @ Southern Illinois University Carbondale from ProQuest. Others should contact the interlibrary loan department of your local library or contact ProQuest's Dissertation Express service.