Degree Name
Master of Science
Graduate Program
Agribusiness Economics
Advisor
Altman, Ira J
Abstract
Durum wheat is the primary ingredient in a global staple food item: pasta. Yet, it is considered a minor wheat crop with less than 2.0 million acres devoted to production in the U.S. Durm wheat production has not received much attention from researchers in terms of either weather impacts or technology trends. This paper uses a multiple regression model to estimate the gains in U.S. yields due to technology and the key weather variables that impact yields in the April through August growing season. The data focus on yields in the key Montana and North Dakota growing areas commonly referred to as the “Durum Triangle.” The regression models reveal two consistent findings. First, the rate of yield increased due to technology is approximately 0.40 bushels per acre per year. Second, the key weather factor in determining yields is the July temperature where each 1 degree (Fahrenheit) above normal reduces yields by roughly 1.5 bushels per acre. Producers, processors, and food companies can use this finding to better anticipate annual durum wheat production volumes and plan their business accordingly.